Elections Contest! Plus, the Money Totals

I think it’s all going to come down to turnout.

As always, it’s time to put our predictions down. Fill out Voice of San Diego’s 2026 General Election Contest for a chance to win lunch with us.

And, as always, I will accept no criticism about the lines I have chosen for the over/unders and they do not reflect anything about my personal beliefs. If they are very close to the final percentages, it’s because I’m very good at this. If they are not close, it’s bad luck.

The Money Races

Dispatch from Mason Herron: As we head into the final weekend before Election Day, the money flowing into local races tells us how campaigns and outside groups view the political landscape. Some races have attracted millions of dollars, while others that once appeared competitive have seen relatively little investment.

With just days remaining, here’s a look at how much money has been raised by candidates in some of San Diego’s most closely watched races, how much outside groups have spent trying to influence the outcomes, and what those numbers might tell us.

Candidate fundraising figures are current through Oct. 17. Outside spending figures are current through Oct. 28.

48th Congressional: Is the GOP Abandoning Desmond?

The 48th Congressional District was one of five Republican-held seats that Proposition 50 redrew to favor Democrats. Rep. Darrell Issa held the prior district but retired when the new one came out.

Running in his place is Republican County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who faces Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert.

After the redraw, national observers saw this as a true battleground. The amount of money raised by the candidates reflected that.  Since launching their respective campaigns, von Wilpert has raised $4.97 million compared to $3.18 million raised by Desmond (however, Desmond raised some of his money while he was running for the 49th district, prior to Proposition 50). Combined, the candidates have raised more than $8 million. But the fundraising gap has widened considerably since July 1, with von Wilpert raising $2,791,704 compared to just $919,136 for Desmond.

However, as the electoral environment continued to deteriorate for Republicans across the country, the spending patterns of national Republican groups suggest they may have become less optimistic about their chances in the district.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent $1,220,643 in coordinated spending on behalf of von Wilpert, compared to $1,351,950 spent by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for Desmond. But despite spending more overall, the NRCC appears to be pulling back. Of that total, $1,018,579 was spent in September, compared to just $333,370 in the first half of October.

The disparity is even more pronounced in independent expenditures. According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, outside groups have spent $7.4 million helping von Wilpert, compared to just $535,623 helping Desmond — a nearly 14-to-1 difference. Since Oct. 15, $1.11M has been spent helping von Wilpert compared to just $13,931 helping Desmond. It would appear that Republican outside groups have essentially cut bait on the 48th.

County Supervisor District 5: Jones Takes Command

Prior to the primary, this was seen as a relatively wide open race. That field featured San Marcos Mayor Rebecca Jones, Vista Mayor John Franklin, and Kyle Krahel, an aide to Congressmember Mike Levin. While other candidates ran, these were the main contenders, and for most outside observers it was unclear who might prevail and by how much.

The primary results were fairly definitive: Jones received 38.3 percent, Krahel received 22.1 percent, and Franklin received 18.2 percent. Despite facing a tough intra-party battle with Franklin, Jones still managed to get nearly 40 percent of the vote, well ahead of Krahel.

If fundraising and outside spending are indications of how political donors view a candidate’s viability, it’s clear that the primary results deflated whatever enthusiasm may have existed for Krahel.

Since July 1, Jones has raised $343,907 in monetary contributions compared to Krahel’s $25,285. Outside groups have spent $132,738 helping her, compared to just $2,390 for Krahel.

San Diego City Council, District 2: Bailey Underdog on Demographics, Leader on Resources

Ever since Richard Bailey entered the race for this open seat, District 2 has been expected to be an expensive battleground. The spending in this race has certainly met — if not exceeded — expectations.

Since launching their campaigns (Crosby opened her committee in 2025, Bailey in 2026), Richard Bailey has raised $366,781 compared to $102,010 for Nicole Crosby. Since July 1, Bailey has raised $89,759 compared to just $29,147 for Crosby, maintaining his substantial fundraising advantage heading into the general election.

As far as outside money is concerned, Bailey has been the beneficiary of $568,499 in support of his campaign and $294,905 in opposition to Crosby in the general election. Conversely, Crosby has benefited from $286,380 supporting her and $219,500 opposing Bailey.

Most of Bailey’s outside support in the general traces back to a single donor, Steven Richter, who has put $700,000 into the main committee backing him, with the Lincoln Club and the Regional Chamber filling in much of the rest. Crosby’s support comes from labor, led by the Laborers and the Municipal Employees Association, along with a separate committee funded by unions and the Democratic Party that has spent against Bailey.

San Diego City Council, District 4: Big Money, Toss Up

While this district was not seen as competitive before the primary, Martha Abraham’s strong performance changed that dynamic, and money has flooded into the district.

Through June 30, Henry Foster had raised $112,142 while Martha Abraham had raised just $45,122. Since July 1, Abraham has raised $42,646 compared to Foster’s $17,094.

In the general election, groups aligned with Foster (primarily the Municipal Employees Association and Laborers Local 89) have spent $281,933 supporting him and $12,003 opposing Abraham. Meanwhile, Abraham has received $291,013 in support with $76,717 opposing Foster. The two groups who have spent in support of Abraham are United Nurses Associations of California / Union of Health Care Professionals PAC and San Diego City Fire Fighters, Local 145 PAC. The California Apartment Association Housing Solutions Committee has been responsible for the money in opposition to Foster.

San Diego City Council, District 6: Sleepy City

This race is the sleepiest among all the other Council races. Incumbent Kent Lee has raised $127,722 dating back to Jan. 1, 2025, while Mark Powell has raised $96,503 dating back to Jan. 1, 2026. Since July 1, however, Powell has outraised Lee by approximately $33,000 to $12,000.

Outside groups aligned with Lee have spent $55,679 supporting Lee and $11,272 opposing Powell in the general election. There have not been any filings in support of Powell or opposed to Lee. In the primary, Lee received 58.8 percent of the vote compared to just 41.2 percent for Powell. Consequently, organizations aligned with each candidate likely see the race as uncompetitive, leading to minimal spending.

San Diego City Council, District 8: Somehow the Most Expensive

The race between Democrats Antonio Martinez and Gerardo Ramirez for the open District 8 Council seat has attracted more outside spending than any other City Council race.

Both candidates have raised similar amounts since launching their campaigns: $123,414 for Ramirez and $125,862 for Martinez. Since July 1, however, Ramirez has outraised Martinez $34,620 to $28,192. Both campaigns have been dwarfed by outside independent expenditures.

Groups supporting Ramirez or opposing Martinez have spent $803,886 supporting him and $302,050 opposing Martinez. Meanwhile, Martinez’s allies have spent $239,087 helping him and $146,598 opposing Ramirez in the general election.

Ramirez is backed mostly by building trades and city employee unions, along with a statewide committee called LCCC PAC. Martinez’s support comes from the county Labor Council, the union representing city firefighters and the hotel workers union.

San Diego County, Measure B

Our Lisa Halverstadt did a deep dive on this one. Measure B, labeled the San Diego County Health & Safety Act, is a 0.5 percent sales tax increase that would be implemented countywide. The committee leading the effort to pass it, “San Diegans for Health and Safety,” has raised $2,274,266 in contributions plus a $500,000 loan, and has spent $4,417,953. A large proportion of that spending went toward qualifying the measure for the ballot at the beginning of the year. Since July 1, the committee has spent $2.3 million, nearly all of it on digital advertising, though $1.85 million of those ad bills hadn’t been paid as of its Oct. 17 filing. Combined with the $500,000 loan, the committee’s outstanding obligations totaled $2.37 million.

As far as outside spending is concerned, $181,468 has been spent in opposition compared to just $1,166 in support. The Yes on B campaign is funded by a mix of local health systems, SEIU and a handful of major individual donors. The opposition has come almost entirely from Rebecca Jones’s ballot measure committee, “Prosperity for San Diego with Rebecca Jones – No on Measure B.”

Guys, Remember Election Central? I Think It’s Back

Our office has this giant annex wing that opens to the patio at 401B St. It’s right around the corner from the House of Blues where the Democrats will be and just down the street from the U.S. Grant where the Lincoln Club’s regular party will be. We have confirmed KPBS, inewsource, NBC San Diego, ABC 10, CBS 8 and we’re working to confirm a few more reporters who are planning to be here when the first numbers come out Tuesday.

Election Central was a truly unique tradition for San Diego. I still haven’t found another city where candidates from all parties, journalists from all outlets and every person who loved democracy and elections gathered on Election Night.

The last one was March 3, 2020 …

So if you’re a candidate or work with a candidate or you just love democracy, drop me a note and we’ll plan on having you. My goal is just to get the minimally viable version of it (media centrally located) so that in 2028, we make it happen at a proper, large location where the entire region can once again come together on Election Night.

To jog your memory, here’s some memorable Election Central moments.

If you remember Election Central fondly or have any feedback or ideas for the Politics Report, send them to [email protected].

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