GOP Troubles Spread to Statehouse Races

California Democrats funneled tens of millions of dollars into legislative races to protect their supermajority and recapture their 2024 losses.

They accomplished that, and then some.

The GOP’s troubles spread like wildfire down the California ballot as statehouse Republicans were set ablaze in the political catastrophe. So much so that Democrats are poised to control both chambers by historic margins.

In San Diego County, the Democratic Party is predicted to protect all seven of its seats up for reelection while potentially flipping two others, as turnout among young and Latino voters hit record highs for a midterm election.

“I don’t think people predicted this,” Democratic strategist Andrew Acosta said of the gains. “If Democrats had spent money in a few other races, they probably could have picked up two or three more seats.”

Dems Poised to Pad Majority with San Diego Senate Seat

Mara Elliott, a Democrat and former San Diego city attorney, was leading GOP challenger Kristie Bruce-Lane by six percentage points in the 40th Senate District as of Friday.

Outside labor groups dropped nearly $1 million to boost Elliott’s campaign and counteract Republican spending in San Diego’ s most expensive legislative race to replace outgoing Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones.

In a statement, Elliott campaign spokesperson Lindsay Bubar said Elliott was encouraged by the results, but was not immediately available for an interview.

Meanwhile in North County, Democratic state Sen. Catherine Blakespear held 56 percent of the vote as of Friday in her Encinitas-based 38th district, which both parties had identified as a target seat. What we know for certain is that Dems won the spending war: Blakespear’s $3 million war chest dwarfed Republican opponent Laura Bessett’s 15 times over.

What wasn’t on either party’s bingo card was GOP Assemblymember Laurie Davies. Her Orange and San Diego County district wasn’t identified as a target seat by either party, yet she was virtually tied with Democrat Sergio Farias in votes counted as of Friday. 

Things got more grim for Republicans further east, where Republican incumbents Jeff Gonzalez and Leticia Castillo are both poised to be ousted after flipping the 36th and 58th Assembly Inland Empire districts just two years ago.

When all is said and done, Democrats could capture a 64-16 majority in the Senate and 32-8 Senate majority, their largest in recent memory, according to longtime Sacramento lobbyist Chris Micheli.

That’s in large part because national trends played out in San Diego County. Historic turnout on Tuesday was pinned to voters’ deep frustration with inflation and high gas prices, for which they blamed President Donald Trump and punished the Republican Party.

“It’s a bad night to be a Republican across the United States, and it’s a really bad night to be a Republican in the blue state of California because they just associated Republicans with Donald Trump,” Acosta said of the GOP’s losses.

That helped boost turnout to around 60 percent, which is “not that far off from a presidential race,” former Republican political consultant Mason Herron said.

Voters with no party affiliation make up about a quarter of registered voters in the county, many of whom  peeled off from the GOP in big numbers, Herron said. 

A Historic Supermajority

While legislative Dems saw eye-popping success this week, they’ve been here before. The 32 seats they’re projected to capture in the Senate mirrors their hold in 2024 and 2018.

And with 64 projected Assembly seats, they’re expected to break their 2022 record of 62, according to Micheli.

But with already a two-thirds majority in both chambers, an even bigger edge over the dwindling Republican caucus doesn’t mean much besides making it more difficult for everyone to fit in one room, Acosta quipped.

“They probably can’t fit in the caucus meeting to get Caesar salad ‘cause there’s not enough chairs,” he said.

The last time there was such a sweeping rebuke of a California state party was in 1994 during the “Republican Revolution” when Gov. Pete Wilson, a Republican, easily won re-election and voters approved a ballot measure to ban noncitizens from using public services, Proposition 187. Democrats lost their 48-32 Assembly majority, dropping to 41-39.

California Rejects Tightening Voter Restrictions

The damage didn’t stop there. A GOP-backed initiative that would have required voters to provide a government ID to vote failed by wide margins on election night.

Fifty-nine percent of voters opposed Proposition 39, which was spearheaded by conservative San Diego Assemblymember Carl DeMaio. He and other supporters argued it’d secure California’s elections (which experts repeatedly assure are already secure) and put it in line with more than two dozen states that have similar ID requirements. Critics from Democratic U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla to Gov.-elect Xavier Becerra said such rules would amount to voter suppression.

Only one other measure — Prop. 44, which would have put spending limits on health clinics — performed worse than Prop. 39 at the ballot box.

“That is a typical vote ratio when you see partisan ballot measures,” Sonoma State University political scientist David McCuan said. “We generally consider 60-40 a landslide.”

Read more on how Prop. 39 fared in my story for CalMatters this week.

What I’m Reading Now

Texas Republicans’ gerrymander backfired. Did California Democrats even need to retaliate with their own? CalMatters explains.

Gov. Gavin Newsom cleared California’s death row, sparing the lives of 548 inmates, including more than two dozen San Diegans, from the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Political casualties are still mounting from this week’s tsunami. South County’s local officials aren’t among them, Voice of San Diego writes.

Thanks for reading this week’s report! Please reach me at [email protected] for any questions or comments.

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