Why new limits on bachelor’s degrees worry some California community colleges

This story was originally published by EdSource.

Gov. Gavin Newsom last month signed laws that will place new limits on how many bachelor’s degree programs California’s community colleges can offer, with stricter caps for districts with lower graduation and transfer rates.  

But a key part of the overhaul remains unresolved: It’s unclear where each district will fall under the five-tier system that will determine the caps, and preliminary analyses show different results. 

That’s left some college leaders apprehensive about whether their college districts could be placed in lower tiers, limiting their ability to add bachelor’s degree programs to meet local workforce needs. 

“I think there would be districts that, very quickly, this could restrict their ability to bring new programs,” said Gregory Smith, chancellor of the San Diego Community College District. 

Newsom signed Assembly Bill 2694 and Senate Bill 960 despite protests from many community college presidents and chancellors. Under the legislation, which takes effect in 2028, districts will be placed into one of five tiers based on graduation and transfer rates. Districts with higher rates will be allowed to offer more degrees — up to a maximum of 12. 

The state chancellor’s office is conducting an analysis of the tiers that “should be completed in the coming months,” said Chris Ferguson, the community college system’s executive vice chancellor of finance and strategic initiatives. 

Some local campus leaders have started their own analyses and estimates of the tiers.

That includes an analysis created by Smith, the San Diego chancellor. His analysis shows nine districts in Tier 1, the tier for colleges with the highest graduation and transfer rates; 25 districts in tier 2; 28 in Tier 3, including San Diego; 10 in tier 4; and none in tier 5.

Tier 1 districts would be allowed to offer between 10 and 12 bachelor’s degrees, depending on the size of the district. Tier 2 districts would be permitted to create between eight and 10 programs. Districts in tier 3 would be capped at six programs, and districts in tier 4 would be limited to four. Districts in tier 5 would only be able to offer two.

Any programs approved before Jan. 1, 2028, however, would not count toward those caps. Currently, 50 community colleges have received approval for a total of 67 bachelor’s degrees in programs including biomanufacturing, cybersecurity and respiratory care. 

The tiered system isn’t the only significant change that the legislation makes to the process for creating bachelor’s degrees. Most notably, community colleges will now be allowed to duplicate programs offered by California State University campuses, in some cases even when those campuses are located in the same region as the community college.

Community colleges had long advocated for that change, but are nearly unanimously opposed to the tiered system. 

Sonya Christian, the community college system’s chancellor, previously expressed concern that the tiered system would be especially harmful to rural districts and single-college districts. The San Diego analysis, however, shows a more nuanced breakdown. 

The 10 districts rated the lowest include a mix of rural colleges, such as Palo Verde and Copper Mountain colleges, and more urban ones, including Glendale Community College and the Los Rios Community College District, which is based in Sacramento. 

There are also seven single college districts and three multi-college districts: San Bernardino, Los Rios and Grossmont-Cuyamaca, based in eastern San Diego County. 

Smith acknowledged that his analysis is an “approximation,” and that the tiers might not be fully consistent with what the chancellor’s office’s official analysis shows. He initially conducted the analysis prior to the bills clearing the Legislature, when he and other college chancellors were protesting the tiers and asking lawmakers to reject the tiered system. 

The office of Sen. Christopher Cabaldon, D-Davis, author of SB 960, also conducted its own analysis of the tiers. That estimate showed 12 districts in tier 1; 22 in tier 2; 29 in tier 3; eight in tier 4; and one in tier 5. His analysis did not identify which specific districts would be in each tier.

That there are different estimates with different findings “illustrates the problem” with the tiered system, said Larry Galizio, president and CEO of the Community College League of California, an advocacy group representing community college presidents. 

“There are different interpretations, and you ask the offices of the legislators and anyone else, and there seems to be uncertainty,” Galizio said. “So I think every single estimate has to have a giant asterisk next to it. That’s what happens when you do things at the last minute and you don’t really test it.” 

The San Bernardino district, which serves 30,000 students across two colleges, is awaiting the chancellor’s office’s analysis to understand where it fits within the tier system, Chancellor Diana Rodriguez said. 

But if San Bernardino ends up in one of the lower tiers, its ability to address growing healthcare needs in the Inland Empire will be limited, Rodriguez said.

“The Inland Empire’s growing and aging population needs more healthcare workers,” she said. “We want Inland Empire residents to have more affordable choices to earn a degree and prepare for good-paying jobs our communities need.”

Smith, the San Diego chancellor, said he’s “pretty certain” his district, which includes three colleges, will end up in tier 3.

That won’t be an immediate problem, since the district’s four existing bachelor’s degrees won’t count toward the cap, Smith said. However, he added that he anticipates it will be an issue “in the long term,” predicting that industry needs will change drastically over the next 10 to 20 years in San Diego. 

“I can’t say exactly the number of years, but I absolutely can see a world where we have an inability to meet the needs of our local workforce because we’ve hit this cap,” he said. 

If districts eventually approach the caps, some college presidents say they are hopeful that the state Legislature will reconsider the issue. 

Ryan Cornner, president and superintendent of Glendale Community College, noted that state law concerning community college bachelor’s degrees has evolved multiple times since an initial pilot program was approved in 2014.

“I would like to think that in the future, the Legislature would make adjustments that are needed when the program demonstrates its successes,” he said.

EdSource is California’s largest independent newsroom focused on education.