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Nevada 2026 election live updates: Results expected soon in Nevada

Nov 3, 2026 · 10:00 AM · The Nevada Independent Staff
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Nov 3, 2026 · 10:00 AM

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Nevada 2026 election live updates: Results expected soon in Nevada

It's Election Day in Nevada.

Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m., but people can still vote if they are in line by that time. Find out where to vote here.

Throughout the day, Nevada Independent reporters will be on the ground talking to voters, tracking the dynamics that will shape the results and keeping an eye out for noteworthy developments.

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Nevada has robust early and mail voting, meaning that most of the vote is already in.

In 2022, the most recent midterm election, 21 percent of the electorate voted on Election Day. This year, that share could be more than enough to swing the state's most competitive races.

Read on to learn more about the races Indy reporters are following most closely. And be sure to check out The Indy's voter guide for information on the races, candidates and voting process.

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This page will be updated throughout the day. Refresh our site at 7 p.m. for our election night live blog, where we'll be delivering news about the results.

Why hasn't Nevada released election results yet? - 10:18 p.m.

Election results have trickled out in all lower 48 states save for Nevada. Why? Polls are closed in Washoe County, but 12 sites in Clark County are still open as of 10:07 p.m.. 

Nevada law requires that no vote tallies are released until after the last voter in line as of 7 p.m. has cast their final vote. Delays stem from long wait times in Nevada's two most populous counties.

— Tabitha Mueller

"I want everybody to stay positive," Gov. Lombardo urges supporters at election party — 10:13 p.m.

"All right, so we don't know anything yet," Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) said as he began his brief remarks before supporters at his election night watch party at the Durango Casino & Resort in Las Vegas.

Lombardo warned the crowd of roughly 200 people that early vote returns could look bad for the GOP but said he was confident he'd eventually triumph and win re-election, even on a night great for Democrats.

"I want everybody to stay upbeat," he said. "I want everybody to stay positive. Why? Because we have a good story to tell."

He also reminded voters it wasn't clear after early returns in 2022 that he'd eventually win.

"If we do not stand fast, the other side wins. And we can't afford that as a state," Lombardo said.

"I want everybody to be proud of what we've done for the last four years, and I want everybody to appreciate the work we're going to do for the next four years."

The vibe in the room was spirited but uneasy. Before Lombardo spoke — after being introduced by Latin Chamber of Commerce President Peter Guzman — the watch party was playing Fox News' election coverage on large screens. 

Supporters anxiously watched election returns that appeared increasingly bad for Republicans. When the U.S. Senate race in Texas was called for Democrat James Talarico — just one of the multiple Democratic Senate flips tonight — loud boos emanated around the room. 

Voters who spoke to The Nevada Independent said they knew it was a bad night for Republicans nationally but still had faith Lombardo could hold on.

"I certainly think he's done well, and I believe he deserves to be re-elected. But no question, we've seen bigger names than that fall," said Rob Meyne, a chair on the campaign committee for the Clark County Republican Party.

— Kate Reynolds

Applause, chants and growing excitement at Democratic watch parties in Nevada — 10:03 p.m.

The mood is ecstatic at Democratic election night watch parties throughout Northern and Southern Nevada, even as state results have not been released more than two hours after polls closed in the state. Democratic lawmakers and attendees have been breaking into applause, loud "whoos," and even into the occasional song as a "blue wave" overtakes the country. 

Minutes before Democrats were projected to flip control of the U.S. Senate and House, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) broke into a spontaneous rap at a watch party in Downtown Las Vegas. "Ain't no party like the Democratic party," she chanted to a crowded room.

State Sen. Fabian Doñate (D-Las Vegas) called tonight's results a win for minorities in an interview with The Indy. He said he expects at least one member to be added to Nevada's Latino Legislative Caucus and said he is "cautiously optimistic" about Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) winning Nevada's gubernatorial race. 

"We're going to enter the Legislature with more of us in power and now we're selecting our first Black governor," Doñate said. 

He added that he is "very confident" that Democrats will have a supermajority in the Assembly, meaning that they can override a governor's veto without Republican support. 

"Some of the Republicans that lost are my colleagues, and they are good people, but I think this is a reflection of what people want, which is some sort of change," Doñate said.

The mood was just as electric up north, where the Washoe County Democrats' watch party in Reno was already filling up within an half hour of its 8 p.m. start. Some attendees shouted out "blue wave" as candidates and lawmakers took the stage, and some were already calling the night a "wipeout."

Stuart Rojstaczer, a Bay area resident who came to Nevada to knock on doors for congressional candidate Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) and Ford, said he has come to the watch party since 2008. That year, he won a raffle for predicting how many states former President Barack Obama would carry. He said tonight's mood reminded him of 2008 and that he has also been in the room for losses that were devastating. 

"There are times when you can just feel the air and smile from ear to ear, and tonight is one of those times," he said.

Local politicians, including state Sen. Skip Daly (D-Sparks) and Assm. Natha Anderson (D-Sparks) pointed to Democratic wins around the county, such as in Texas, where Democrat Gina Hinojosa unseated Gov. Greg Abbott. Daly said he has a personal stake in Nevada's governor's race.

"I think I had like nine bills vetoed by the jackass," Daly said of Gov. Joe Lombardo (R).

When Anderson introduced Benitez-Thompson, the room broke into chants of "TBT," her initials. Benitez-Thompson took the time to thank the more than 500 volunteers on her campaign and she said she hopes the district — which has never been held by a Republican — will follow the national trend.

"We have run a hell of a campaign, you guys," she said, addressing the beaming crowd. 

— Isabella Aldrete and Piper Heath

Dems ahead in Clark County Election Day turnout as GOP statewide turnout dips — 6:45

Nevada Republicans entered Election Day banking on turnout gains in Clark County. In the home stretch of voting, that isn't happening.

Entering Election Day, Republicans trailed Democrats by about 67,000. But at about 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, Democrats had a roughly 500 person advantage in Nevada's most populous county. The GOP had a 21,000 person advantage in Election Day voting in Clark County four years ago.

It comes as Republicans continue to shed their Election Day turnout advantage. Earlier in the day, Republican turnout on Election Day was 12 percentage points higher than Democrats, but by 6:30 p.m., that had fallen to less than 9 percentage points.

— Eric Neugeboren

Republican turnout stabilizing, still struggling to close Democratic turnout lead - 3:30 p.m.

Eight hours into Election Day voting, turnout among registered Republicans has dipped slightly, which could mean trouble for the party's efforts to close the Democrats' lead entering Election Day.

Earlier in the day, Republican turnout on Election Day was 12 percentage points higher than Democrats, but by 3 p.m., that had fallen to about 10 points. In the 2022 election, Republicans held a 22 percentage point advantage in Election Day turnout.

In Clark County, where Democrats had about a 67,000 vote lead heading into Election Day, Republicans' advantage in Election Day voting has hovered around 600 votes. They could need significant improvement in those numbers to avoid a blue tsunami.

— Eric Neugeboren

Exclusive: Flippo answers questions on Desert Storm, financial disclosure — 2:35 p.m.

In a brief interview with The Nevada Independent outside a polling place in Reno on Tuesday, David Flippo (R), the Republican nominee in Northern Nevada's 2nd Congressional District, addressed recent negative headlines about his bid.

Asked if he participated in Operation Desert Storm following a Mother Jones story that suggested he misrepresented his service record, the retired lieutenant colonel clarified that the term referred to a yearslong effort supporting the operation.

"Desert Storm was a period of time, right?" he said, pointing out that he was awarded the Southwest Asia Service Medal. "If you go do your research and look that one up, it says it was awarded to veterans that served in Desert Storm between '91 and '95. That's what it says. We can go, 'Well, there was this operation, and there was that operation, and there was this other operation.' … I think it said '91 to '95 and I was there during that period."

"I think it's really disgraceful and dishonorable for them to nitpick every little section of my military service," he added, restating that he served between 1985 and 2009. Mother Jones reported that he was attending Montana State University between 1989 and 1991 and was deployed to Saudi Arabia in 1992.

Regarding his personal financial disclosure, which still doesn't appear on the House Clerk's website, Flippo said "the system was down" when his campaign attempted to file a draft version in September. His campaign provided the draft to The Indy at the time.

"We reported that, and they finally got back with us, and we're filing now," he said. "All that stuff you saw handwritten, we're getting it in the system. I got to get a lawyer to look at it. … We had an election. We've been a little bit busy. So that process takes time."

On current Rep. Mark Amodei's (R-NV) decision to vote for a third-party candidate in the race, Flippo said, "He can do whatever he wants. This is a free country, free world, and he has his opinion about things. We don't always agree. One thing I like about the Republican Party is we don't always agree."

During the interview, one voter cut in to tell Flippo he would vote for him. The GOP nominee remains confident.

"The voters of Northern Nevada — I believe that we're conservative, and I believe that we'll come out on top," he said. 

— Eric Neugeboren and Mini Racker

Lombardo makes a stop at Desert Breeze Park — 1:00 p.m.

Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) stopped by his campaign booth in the parking lot of the Desert Breeze Park Community Center on Tuesday morning to thank volunteers and greet supporters.

"I'm going to hit three polling locations today," Lombardo told The Nevada Independent. Desert Breeze is typically one of the busiest polling sites in Clark County. "We've been obviously out and about, knocking on doors and doing all the grassroots efforts."

Lombardo said he was "feeling good," despite Democrats holding a significant lead in ballots turned in statewide following the close of early voting Friday.

"Obviously there was a significant firewall built prior to the day, but I have trust in the Republican Party and across the board," he said, citing Democratic "crossover votes" and votes from nonpartisans. "I have a lot of trust in the folks that they want appropriate representation moving forward."

– Howard Stutz

Navy veteran votes straight Democratic because he hates the Iran war – 12:52 p.m.

Kenneth Eady, a Las Vegas resident and 21-year Navy veteran, voted Tuesday morning at Allegiant Stadium because the Las Vegas Raiders fan wanted the special Raiders-themed sticker being handed out by the Clark County Election Department.

But no matter where he voted, he made a point on why he marked his ballot straight Democratic for the general election.

"I'm not happy with this war and we need to get out of the Strait of Hormuz," Eady said. "It's a scary area."

Eady said he served on two different U.S. Navy vessels during two tours of duty in the Persian Gulf and he's worried that military personnel will die if the conflict escalates.

Allegiant Stadium drew more than 4,200 voters two years ago. As of noon Tuesday, a little more than 600 people had cast ballots at the venue. Raiders President Sandra Douglass Morgan and her husband, Don, were seen leaving the location after voting.

Meanwhile, Adam Williams of Las Vegas, another Raiders fan, said he wanted to make sure he voted for his "two favorite candidates," Gov. Joe Lombardo and internet personality/congressional candidate Bobby Khan, who has posted hundreds of social media videos touting Las Vegas.

"I love that guy," Williams said.

– Howard Stutz

Can growing GOP turnout stop the blue wave? — 12:36 p.m.

We're nearly halfway through Election Day voting. Since this morning, Republicans showing has improved, with the GOP's statewide Election Day lead growing to 8,011 votes, or 12.7 percent as of 12:20 p.m. 

Counting early and mail ballots, Democrats still lead by tens of thousands of votes statewide.

In Clark County, too, Republicans have taken a small Election Day lead, though they still have a lot of ground to make up to offset the firewall Democrats built during early voting.

One positive sign for the GOP is the fact that their share of the vote in Clark County has grown compared to Democrats' as the day has gone on. This was not the case in the past few elections. 

In-person Election Day turnout so far stands just around 65,000 statewide — less than 10 percent of the number of ballots that were in before polls opened. But that number could grow significantly.

"The public may experience longer wait times as the voting process has changed this year and turnout is expected to be significant," Clark County spokesperson Jennifer Cooper wrote in an email to reporters.

A map of Las Vegas-area polling locations shows more than two dozen currently have wait times exceeding 40 minutes. Near Reno, nine polling sites currently have lines between 30 minutes and one hour.

— Mini Racker

Buoyant mood at rally for Ford as governor's race 'Leans Democratic' — 12:12pm

In a final push before the polls opened on Election Day, Democratic elected officials came out in droves to support Attorney General Aaron Ford, who is running for governor. 

At the Nov. 2 rally in Las Vegas at the Plumbers, Pipefitters and Service Technicians Union Local 525 headquarters, Ford told the crowd of roughly 150 people that this was the "tightest governor's race in the country." The mood was high, with frequent loud cheers and applause from supporters holding signs.

"I've got your back, and right now, I'm asking that you have mine," Ford said. 

Among the speakers were top Democratic elected officials, including Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV), Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) and Assm. Daniele Monroe-Moreno (D-North Las Vegas), who is running for mayor of North Las Vegas. 

Big talking points from electeds included hammering in on the "Lombardo-Trump" economy, including affordability and gas prices as well as  President Donald Trump's (R) leadership. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) was initially favored to win re-election, according to polls, but a surge of Democratic voters in Nevada, as well as Trump's low favorability, has put his chances of a win into question. 

Pollsters and politicos have deemed the race extremely close; The Center for Politics has updated its prediction to "Leans Democratic." Talk of a "blue wave" was a common thread among the speakers. 

"America has said enough is enough," said Lee, adding that Democrats were going to flip the Republican-controlled House. Horsford mentioned "record-breaking" early voting results as the "the best we've had in history." 

So far, Democrats have a sizable statewide lead based on early voting results but Election Day and mail ballots, including those from Nevada's more Republican rural areas, have yet to be counted. 

Voters at the rally mentioned affordability, immigration and labor as big issues on their minds during the election. 

Members from two unions mentioned the appeal of Ford's union-friendly policy ideas, including a promise to repeal the state's Right to Work law. A first-time, 19-year-old voter said political corruption was a big issue for him and he criticized Lombardo for seemingly using his status as governor to get out of a traffic ticket in a viral video earlier this summer. 

— Oona Milliken

DOJ election observers at Downtown Summerlin and Craig Ranch voting locations — 11:24 a.m.

Two election observers from the Department of Justice (DOJ) were present at a voting location in Downtown Summerlin for about half an hour this morning, a Clark County election official confirmed to The Nevada Independent.

Another county election official confirmed that DOJ observers were also at the voting location at Craig Ranch Regional Park in North Las Vegas, where about 70 people were waiting in line to vote as of 11 a.m. Tuesday. 

Clark County spokesperson Jennifer Cooper wrote in a statement that federal observers have visited voting sites in Clark County in prior elections, and that they are there to ensure the county's elections comply with the Americans with Disabilities Act.

"The County worked with the Department of Justice to ensure we were in compliance before voting began and invested in the hiring of a compliance officer for additional measure," wrote Cooper. "The public should not feel concerned." 

She also said the observers will likely visit "several" other voting sites in the county.

The 2026 midterm election is the first time the DOJ has deployed election monitors to all 50 states, sending out nearly 1,000 observers. The Trump administration says it's deploying the officers to crack down on voter fraud, though there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud. In the days leading up to the election, the DOJ charged five noncitizens in Nevada with voter fraud, with most of the cases pertaining to the 2024 election.

A nonpartisan election observer at Craig Ranch, speaking anonymously, said they overheard the DOJ observers asking questions about election workers' training protocols. An election worker, also speaking anonymously, confirmed that the DOJ observers had asked questions of election workers but declined to say what the questions were or provide further comment. 

In relation to the DOJ efforts, Harmeet K. Dhillon, the assistant attorney of the DOJ's General Civil Rights Division, wrote in a statement that she is "proud" of "pursuing transparency for elections in an assertive and nondiscriminatory manner."

Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D) told The Indy in a statement that Nevada allows anyone from the public to be an observer and that "everyone is welcome" as long as they respect the election process.

"We will not tolerate any form of disruption, chaos, threats or intimidation," Aguilar said. 

Clark County is the only jurisdiction in Nevada where the DOJ is sending monitors.

Note: this blog post was updated at 3:00p.m. on 11/03/2026 to include a statement from Clark County.

– Isabella Aldrete and Kate Reynolds

From Nevada Day to Election Day, here's what voters are thinking — 11:12 a.m.

Over the weekend, The Nevada Independent spoke with voters at the Nevada Day Parade in Carson City about whom they planned to support, what was driving their decisions and how the national environment may be shaping their vote.

Here's some of their thoughts:

Monique Grant, 47, nonpartisan: 

"I just try to kind of keep my mind open. There's a lot of ads out there, and … I really wish the rules would change. Like, why does a candidate have to bash another candidate instead of just simply being like, 'This is what I stand for, and this is what your vote is going to get if you vote for me.'"

David Crowell, 42, Democrat:

"I think our country is collapsing right now, and I think we need to stand strong and fight back. … No one should be ostracized or outcast because you don't understand them. It's ridiculous. The people that do that, they have work to do internally. They need help."

Erik Charm, 59, nonpartisan but self described as "right of center": 

"I would love for an instance to come up where it's not the choice of lesser evils, but it's been a long time since there was a choice of somebody where I actually could get behind the candidate. It was just, 'this person will cause less harm in their four years than this person.'"

Harper Lopiccolo, 22, Democrat: 

"Gen Z and people my age should go and vote. They should exercise their right. That's their right, whether they believe in one side or the other. …I think there's a sense of desperation or hopelessness about the issue — you're just a number in the crowd. But I think if we want to change the country for the better, we have to be the ones that make that change."

— Tabitha Mueller

A noncitizen voting crusade — 10:02 a.m.

Election Day is happening against a backdrop of the Trump administration's crusade against noncitizen voting in Nevada and states across the country. 

Some of the most notable developments happened in the past couple of weeks, when the Justice Department charged five noncitizens for allegedly voting in the past two general elections in Nevada. U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, who was formerly President Donald Trump's personal attorney, is included on all five charging documents.

Aaron Blacksberg, federal policy counsel for the Institute for Responsive Government, told The Indy onTuesday that it is "all but unheard of" for the attorney general to personally be on a charging document. He also was unaware of Blanche's name on filings in other states.

Blacksberg added that historically, the Justice Department has not taken "public steps in anything that could be seen as impacting an upcoming election," but that has not been the case under the Trump administration.

In a statement, Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D) said his "office "supports investigations of election integrity violations that include credible evidence," and that it has fulfilled legal obligations to the Justice Department. 

The feds have traded barbs with state election officials over the prominence of noncitizen voting in Nevada elections, at one time claiming that there may be more than 15,000 noncitizens on the voter rolls. The Trump administration later sent state election officials a list of 185 potential noncitizens on the voter rolls, but the state said they were likely citizens.

Bill Essayli, a top federal prosecutor in California, implied in a social media post that the people charged were part of the list provided to state election officials, which consisted of ID numbers assigned to voters. The U.S. Attorney's Office of Nevada declined to comment on Essayli's post.

Aguilar, whose office has not said whether the voters charged were previously brought to its attention, added in a statement that, "I will also continue to reject any reckless political theater, including [the administration's] unsupported claims that thousands of noncitizens are on Nevada's" voter rolls.

— Eric Neugeboren

What the first Election Day votes tell us — 9:26 a.m.

The first trickle of Election Day votes are in, and experts say all signs point to a blue wave.

Before today, around three quarters of a million Nevadans had already cast their ballots, with registered Democratic turnout outpacing Republican turnout by more than 40,000. 

Assuming nonpartisans don't break for the GOP, the party needs great turnout from its voters today to stay competitive in the state's traditional battlegrounds and the governors' race.

So far, that hasn't happened. Republicans are leading Election Day turnout as of 9:20 a.m., but only slightly. In Clark County, more Democrats have voted today than Republicans, and the share of Democratic votes is higher than it was at this point in the morning two and four years ago.

As expected for a midterm, overall Election Day turnout is on track to be much lower than it was in the presidential year of 2024, which could also benefit Democrats given their early vote lead.

— Mini Racker

The questions we're asking about the governor's race — 2 a.m.

I'll leave the predictions and pontifications to The Boss, but the closest race in the Silver State this year is likely the one for governor.

It's the most expensive race in Nevada this cycle by ad spending, with more than $77.2 million spent as of Monday, according to AdImpact. Republicans' spending has outpaced Democrats' by more than $32.6 million. 

For every dollar Democrats spent, the GOP spent about $2.47.

In 2022, when Nevada was the only state in the country to have a Republican oust a Democratic incumbent governor, AdImpact data shows total spending on the governor's race was more than $83.8 million, with Democrats carrying the spending advantage over Republicans by about $3.3 million.

Spending, of course, doesn't tell the whole story.

I've spent time on the campaign trail with Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) and Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) — and looming large over both candidates is President Donald Trump. His unpopularity could drag down the first-term governor, who has tried walking a tightrope between embracing MAGA and appealing to moderates, while Ford hasn't hesitated to tie the two Republicans together.

Nevada voters often split the ticket, most recently in 2022 when they re-elected Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and elected Lombardo as governor. In 2024, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) survived re-election even as Trump won the state. 

In a national environment as rough as it is right now for Republicans, no one knows how it's going to turn out.

Lombardo's campaign has run about as smoothly as it could hope, and it carries the weight of incumbency, but the questions we're asking ahead of tonight are: Will his efforts be enough? And just how purple is Nevada? 

If Ford wins, he will not only be the first Black governor elected in a state west of the Mississippi River, but he will also flip the governor's office back to a Democrat for only the second time this century.

If Lombardo manages to hang on, the focus will likely be on how he survived and what it means for Nevada's electorate heading into the 2028 presidential cycle.

A key subplot is whether legislative Democrats can flip enough seats to give them a two-thirds supermajority in one or both houses. The party is one seat shy in both chambers, which would let them override vetoes or pass taxes without Republican support. 

Passing that threshold would suddenly make the 2027 Legislature much more interesting and break from the last two sessions' worth of double-digit vetoes under Lombardo. Buckle up, Carson City.

Unfortunately, the governor's race may be too close to call tonight, but we'll have answers soon enough.

— Tabitha Mueller

What we're watching in Nevada's House races — 2 a.m.

When I started covering Nevada's House races last year, I didn't expect the midterms to be all that interesting. The Democratic incumbents had survived tougher environments than this and Rep. Mark Amodei's (R-NV) seat was ruby red.

Since then, the environment has only improved for Democrats. Though state Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson), video game composer Marty O'Donnell (R) and rancher and small-business owner Cody Whipple (R) all told me about the ways their unique campaigns could, ahem, trump the GOP's unpopularity, most would be shocked if they did. 

The 2nd Congressional District was something else entirely. Amodei's retirement announcement was the first surprise, to staff and potential successors. As the congressman pledged to stay out of the race, I spent weeks on the phone grilling Northern Nevada Republicans about who might jump in.

After insiders rallied around former state Sen. James Settelmeyer (R-Minden), the next big surprise was small-business owner David Flippo's (R) choice to drop his bid in the 4th Congressional District and run in this one. Amodei reversed himself and along with the governor decided to publicly endorse Settelmeyer. Ten days before the primary, Trump endorsed Flippo, whose aggressive campaign prevailed.

When I spoke to Amodei right after the primary, it seemed he planned to eventually endorse Flippo. By August, it was clear that wouldn't happen. The "carpetbagger" criticism of Flippo was expected. Other controversies were not. 

In June, this newsletter was first to report Flippo's missing financial disclosure amid massive self-funding. The surprise was that he never formally filed one, though his campaign did give us a draft. National media scrutiny has been another surprise, from The Washington Post's reporting that his campaign had misrepresented his military honors to The Wall Street Journal pointing out a contribution attributed to a dead donor. I definitely did not expect Mother Jones to have a Flippo beat reporter. 

If former Assm. Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D-Reno) doesn't win here, it's unlikely a Democrat ever will. When Northern Nevada Democrats talked about how they might have a chance in the 2nd Congressional District in the spring, I thought that might be just talk. When I asked Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chair Suzan DelBene about investing in the race in June, she equivocated. 

But I was soon proven wrong. Not only did the DCCC put Benitez-Thompson on its Red to Blue list — typically reserved for swing district candidates — but other national groups came in with millions on her behalf. 

With the help of an AI coding tool, I've confirmed that this is the most expensive race in the district's history. In terms of outside spending here, it is the most expensive by far. The Freedom Caucus, Club for Growth and others have together spent millions on Flippo's behalf. Even the National Republican Congressional Committee eventually swooped in.

Independent race raters have repeatedly moved the contest toward Democrats. Betting markets put Flippo's chances around 2 in 3. 

The results will hinge on a few key questions that reveal a lot about today's politics. As nearly every Nevada Republican with a political future rallies behind Flippo, how much are regular GOP voters immovable partisans? How much will anti-immigrant and anti-socialist ads motivate them? Where do the nonpartisans go? Just how big is the blue wave?

The GOP primary, in which Flippo trounced a hometown conservative by employing red meat messaging and Trump's endorsement, suggests the answers will fall in his favor. But unlike Settelmeyer, Benitez-Thompson ran as an underdog and has benefited from the unified support of her party's leaders and donors. She and her allies have attacked Flippo with a relentlessness Settelmeyer didn't.

In the election's final days, outside groups have popped up to try to redirect GOP voters to Lynn Chapman (IAP). A strong performance for Chapman is the Democrat's most likely path to victory. Meanwhile, other groups are using similarly tricky tactics against Benitez-Thompson.

Expect a post mortem from us later this week, a deeper look at the money involved later on and plenty of coverage of Northern Nevada's new representative when they join me in Washington in January.

— Mini Racker

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The Nevada Independent Staff
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Local Net, Nevada, US
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Nov 3, 2026 · 10:00 AM

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