Turnout Played a Key Role in Gains Made by Democrats in Tennessee

An open governor’s seat, perceived closeness in several races, compelling independent candidates and strong emotions surrounding the frontrunners combined to drive voter turnout in Tennessee’s 2026 midterm elections. Turnout was much higher than in 2022. 

Early returns presaged large numbers on Election Day. Throughout the state, across the 14-day early voting period, 45 percent more people cast ballots in 2026 (nearly 1.3 million) than in 2022 (around 880,000). The same was true in Davidson County, with 57 percent more people voting early in 2026 than in 2022, an increase of almost 50,000. 

This cycle’s turnout was comparable to the 2018 elections, which was the last time the governor’s race lacked an incumbent. That was the year Bill Haslam’s term drew to a close. Those elections had particularly strong Nashville ties, with former governor Phil Bredesen running for Senate against then-Rep. Marsha Blackburn and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean taking on eventual winner Bill Lee in the governor’s race. 

Based on conversations with voters, strong opposition to this year’s frontrunner – and ultimate winner – Marsha Blackburn brought some to the polls over the past few weeks. 

“I really despise Marsha Blackburn,” one voter said when asked what issues motivated him. “I feel like she’s gonna be elected, but I want to make it difficult.”

Blackburn declined to debate or hold many public events throughout her campaign. Some voters began to feel that her opponent, Democrat Jerri Green, stood a chance, giving them an extra push to the polls. Independent David Hatley also galvanized his own base of voters, leading to an unexpectedly close race. 

Blackburn tacitly acknowledged the surprisingly narrow win and the higher-than-usual opposition turnout in her victory speech. 

“Elections are tough,” she told the crowd at her watch party at The Pinnacle. “I fully appreciate that not every Tennessean voted for me, but I can tell you this — I will be a governor for each and every Tennessean. And I wish the best for Tennesseans. It is time for all Tennesseans to come together for the good of our state.”

Luis Mata, Communications and Deputy Executive Director for the Tennessee Democratic Party, that usually about half the number of people who vote in elections during a presidential year do so during midterms. A little over three million Tennesseans voted in 2024, so the state eclipsed that threshold this year. 

Democrats in Tennessee flipped six statehouse seats and one congressional seat. Mata pointed to a plan that TNDP put in place after the 2024 elections — a new chair, five new staff members, a program that generated 500 new organizers and funding from Nashville Mayor Freddie O’Connell’s Ready PAC to train 500 poll watchers. 

On Election Day, some party members committed to a “knock and drag” in Germantown, just outside Memphis — knocking on doors, telling people there was an election happening, and either offering them a ride or making sure they had a plan to vote. Mata said that no matter the neighborhood, cost of living was the main issue.

“Regardless of who you are, regardless of what your ZIP code is, what your immigration status is, we all feel it in our pockets,” said Mata when asked what inspired turnout.  Mata pointed to President Donald Trump’s 2024 promise to lower gas to below $2 per gallon, compared with current gas prices above $4 per gallon.

“They say change comes about in two ways, right?” Said Mata. “They either see the light or they feel the heat. For nearly two decades, [Republicans] have not seen the light. Last night, they felt the heat.

“We’re celebrating today and getting back to work tomorrow.”

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