Arizona Democrats poised to flip two U.S. House seats

Arizona Democrats held strong leads early Wednesday in two of the state’s most competitive congressional districts, with JoAnna Mendoza and Amish Shah both poised to defeat their Republican opponents. 

As of just after midnight on Wednesday, Mendoza was leading Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani by 12 percentage points, leaving her poised to take over representing Congressional District 6, the state’s most competitive district.  

In Congressional District 1, Arizona’s wealthiest district, Shah had a 12 point lead on his Republican opponent Jay Feely. If he maintains that lead, he’ll upend years of Republican control of the district. 

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National Democrats targeted both districts as opportunities to help flip control of the chamber, but as of early Wednesday, before any of the Arizona races were called by The Associated Press, Democrats had already secured enough seats to take control of both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. 

A growing dislike of President Donald Trump and the fiscal impacts of his administration’s policies took center stage as Democrats successfully used that unpopularity against Republican incumbents across the country. 

And in Arizona’s Second Congressional District, Democrat Jonathan Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation, narrowly led incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane in the race for Arizona’s second congressional district by less than half of a percentage point. 

Two years ago, Crane easily defeated Nez by nine percentage points, but polling showed the distance between the two had significantly narrowed this cycle, with a poll commissioned by Nez’s campaign in August showing him in a statistical tie with Crane in a district where Republicans have an 11-percentage point voter registration advantage. Other polling since then has shown them neck-in-neck, with Crane slightly favored to win.

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