Election Notebook analysis: Signs, social media and endorsements

A rookie move in political campaigns is to measure popularity of a candidate based on signs.

Signs don’t vote.

If they did, Matt Kilrain and his “Boat Rat Matt” signs would be running away with the mayor’s election.

Signs can be one measure of a candidate’s popularity, but they don’t tell the full story.

Many of them are on public property, which is illegal. We all share the public space and they should not be a home to political signs.

Residential and commercial property owners also often put signs up on their properties because they can—but it is not a measure of support from anyone other than the property owner. A property owner can put a sign on their property, but the residents in that building might have entirely different views on who to vote for.

While signs are important, the most important thing a candidate can do in an election is knock on doors and talks to voters directly.

Newspapers don’t vote

The Santa Barbara Independent and Voice SB have endorsed Eric Friedman. The Montecito Journal has endorsed Kristen Sneddon.

IT’S OK IF A NEWSPAPER ENDORSES A CANDIDATE THAT YOU DON’T SUPPORT.

The efforts by the Sneddon supporters to discredit the Independent’s endorsement of Eric Friedman only serve one purpose—to highlight that Sneddon did not get the endorsement, particularly when those same individuals tout the power of the Indy’s endorsements with other candidates.

Penning long articles about why a newspaper shouldn’t have endorsed a particular candidate takes away energy from the candidate that they are trying to support.

The battle between frontrunners Sneddon and Friedman has sparked significant emotions among voters who are paying attention to this contest. Strategically, It’s best for individuals to support their chosen candidates, not waste time and energy trying to discredit a newspaper’s decision.

Let it go.

District 4 Money

Big money is circulating in the Santa Barbara City Council District 4 contest.

The candidates have raised more than $225,000 this fiscal year combined—and most of that is from candidates Devon Wardlow and Monte Wilson.

Wardlow has raised $98,237; Wilson $82,000; Genevieve Taft-Vazquez has raised $39,180; and Jason Dominguez, $5,700.

Here’s the deal on money: Inexperienced candidates say that they can’t be bought and they won’t accept contributions because campaigns should be about ideas, not money.

That’s not how it works.

Money is a sign of support. People who give money think their candidate can win. People generally don’t give money to candidates who they don’t think are viable.

Campaigns are about politics. Serving is about governance. Many candidates make the mistake of attempting to govern during a campaign, but that should come after one is elected to office.

Campaigns are about advertising. If people don’t know who a candidate is, they don’t know to vote for that candidate. This is why candidates who raise the most money often win. Money pays for mailers, newspaper and digital media ads and door literature. The more times a candidate makes contact with a voter, the more a person is likely to vote for that candidate.

That’s not to say that the candidates who raise the most money always win because that’s not true. Kristen Sneddon famously trounced Barrett Reed five years ago when he challenged her for the District 4 City Council seat. Reed raised $271,000. Sneddon raised $88,000—but she beat Reed by more than 1,600 votes, on way to winning 61.5% of the vote.

Sneddon was seen as the authentic candidate and Reed as the big spender trying to buy the election. In that case, money did not prevail.

So raising the most money does not guarantee victory, but raising the least amount of money almost certainly guarantees a finish at the bottom. For the most part, the candidates who raise the most money usually win.

In District 4, Taft-Vazquez, a longtime resident who is well-known in the District, is looking to disrupt that conventional wisdom. She can’t catch Wardlow in spending, but she is making a serious push to win office.

And Wardlow’s detractors are whispering about her work history in the cannabis industry as some sort of litmus test for eligibility to serve. It’s unclear if any of that will stick. Wardlow, who has served five years on the planning commission and been a supporter of affordable housing over hotels, has wide support from community organizations, including the Santa Barbara County Democratic Party.

She has not, however, lived as long as Taft-Vazquez has in the District. Taft-Vazquez also serves on the Neighborhood Advisory Council.

Dominguez, a former Santa Barbara City Councilman in District 1, hasn’t launched much of a campaign; it’s unclear if he has given up, or is hoping his name recognition will propel him to victory.

Meanwhile, Wilson appears to have the clearest path toward a potential victory. The jovial and kind retired tech executive has a strong traditional media and social media push. He’s the only non-Democrat in the race, and he is endorsed by mayor Randy Rowse. He also doesn’t appear to be a victim of any behind-the-scenes gossip and he could surprise people on Election Day if Dem voters are torn between Dominguez, Taft-Vazquez and Wardlow and split the vote.

The Dems and the activists will have to do a lot of unpacking of election choices if that happens.

Social Media

Social media has officially arrived with this year’s elections.

Ari Kirk, proprietor of the popular VisionariContent, and her team have shot social media videos for Taft-Vazquez and Wardlow—bringing high-quality production and messaging to the City Council contest. Kirk talks about her career and company here and she has introduced a whole new way for candidates to reach people on social media.

Candidates Wilson and Alexander Stoeber in District 6 also have an effective social media presence, regularly communicating video stories with their audiences.

In the old days, candidate ads consisted mostly of newspaper spends, but social media videos have arrived as legitimate ways to reach a large audience. (As a nonprofit organization, the Santa Barbara News-Press does not endorse political candidates, nor does it accept political ads from candidates).

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