Warmington in Statistical Tie With Gov. Kelly Ayotte

DURHAM – The latest UNH poll shows Democrat Cinde Warmington is statistically tied in the race with incumbent Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte.

“A slim majority approve of Ayotte’s handling of her job as governor,” according to the poll. Ayotte didn’t immediately return a call seeking comment.

Warmington’s Communications Director Jon Levin said: “More than $2 million of stale, pathetic attack ads not only failed to sell Granite Staters on Costly Kelly, but also proved Cinde Warmington is the candidate who can win this November. Working families across New Hampshire are sick and tired of the chaos, costs, and corruption of Ayotte’s failed record. It’s time for the change that Cinde will bring to lower costs and clean up Ayotte’s mess.”

“Cinde is now within four points of taking back the corner office, up six points from August and within the poll’s margin of error. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to an all-time low in New Hampshire, across both of his terms in office,” Levin said.

The Granite State Poll also showed Democrats held leads for the New Hampshire legislature and Executive Council.

Democrat U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas has a narrow lead over Republican John E. Sununu in the race for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire to replace U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-NH, who is retiring.

In the races for Congress, incumbent Democrat Maggie Goodlander holds a comfortable lead over Republican Lily Tang Williams in CD2, the poll said. U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s daughter, Democrat Stefany Shaheen, and Republican Anthony DiLorenzo are statistically tied in CD1.

A plurality support a proposal capping local education spending. Granite Staters are concerned about the trade standoff between the U.S. and Canada.

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Granite State Panel members were sent an invitation to complete the survey and 1,542 completed the survey online between September 17 and September 21, 2026. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2.5 percent. Included in the sample were 1,418 likely general election voters (margin of sampling error +/- 2.6 percent), 711 of whom reside in New Hampshire’s First Congressional District (MOE +/- 3.7 percent) and 702 of whom reside in New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District (MOE +/- 3.7 percent).

For complete press release and detailed tabular results, please click:https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1005/

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